Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
