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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still